Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
0.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.65%
$5.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise and objective criteria for resolution. The market tracks a single clearly specified trading pair (BTC/USDT) on Binance using one-minute candle low prices. The evaluation window includes exact start and end dates with time zones specified, and the market resolves immediately to Yes if the price reaches or drops below $15,000 during that window, or to No otherwise. With a dedicated, publicly accessible data source and clearly defined thresholds, there is minimal room for interpretive dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin drops to $15,000 or lower on Binance before the end of 2026. Resolution is strictly tied to Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle low prices and ignores all other exchanges or trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final Low price equal to or lower than $15,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets this condition during the specified timeframe. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle price data is the sole deciding source, and prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded.
Key dates
- Observation period starts: — Start of the observation period in ET.
- Observation period ends: — Final cutoff for a qualifying candle low in ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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