Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
7.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$4.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the target threshold, observation window, time zone, and exact data source. Resolution relies strictly on the one-minute candle Low price for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance, leaving no room for decider interpretation or alternative exchange data. The market resolves immediately to Yes if the price touches or breaches $50,000 during the specified timeframe starting November 24, 2025, and resolves to No if that price is never reached by December 31, 2026.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin drops to $50,000 or lower between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026. It relies exclusively on Binance 1-minute candle data for the BTC/USDT trading pair, disregarding all other exchanges and pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT records a final Low price equal to or lower than $50,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no qualifying 1-minute candle reaches that price by the end of the specified window. Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT chart data is the sole deciding source. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or other spot markets do not count.
Key dates
- Start of tracking period: — 14:00 ET
- End of tracking period: — 23:59 ET
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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