Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.85¢
+0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.85%
$929.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise, objective resolution criteria tied directly to the 1-minute BTC/USDT candle low on Binance within a defined timeframe and timezone. The market resolves immediately to Yes if any qualifying 1-minute candle touches or drops below $30,000, and resolves to No after the final deadline if the threshold is not reached. Only Binance BTC/USDT is considered, leaving virtually no room for decider interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $30,000 or lower on the Binance BTC/USDT pair between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle data from Binance rather than composite index prices or other exchanges.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any 1-minute candle for the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair has a final Low price of $30,000 or lower between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets or falls below this price threshold during the specified window. Only Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data is considered; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded. Resolution is determined by Binance price data.
Key dates
- Start Date: — Start of the monitoring period at 14:00 ET
- End Date: — End of the monitoring period at 23:59 ET
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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