Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
3.1¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.1%
$2.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules are clear and tightly specified. Outcome determination relies entirely on a single designated data feed: the one-minute candle low prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance. The market resolves to Yes immediately if any one-minute candle touches or dips below $40,000 within the explicit start and end timestamps in Eastern Time, and resolves to No otherwise. Price movements on other exchanges or trading pairs are expressly excluded, leaving no room for discretionary interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) drops to $40,000 or lower on Binance within the specified time window.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT records a final Low price of $40,000 or lower between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or falls below this threshold during the specified window. Resolution is determined solely by Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT chart data, while prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or other spot markets are disregarded.
Key dates
- Start of tracking period: — Tracking begins at 14:00 ET.
- End of tracking period: — Tracking ends at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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