Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
0.45¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$5.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are strictly defined using a single metric from a single designated exchange. The market resolves to Yes immediately if any one-minute candle on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair reaches or exceeds $250,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. If that threshold is not reached during the window, it resolves to No. The only specific mechanic to note is that price action on other exchanges, index feeds, or alternative trading pairs does not count.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $250,000 by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends strictly on 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance, disregarding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final High price of $250,000 or greater between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or exceeds $250,000 during this timeframe. Resolution is decided solely using Binance 1-minute candle data for the BTC/USDT pair; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded.
Key dates
- Monitoring begins: — 14:00 ET
- Monitoring ends: — 23:59 ET
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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