Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
2.25¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.25%
$3.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules provide clear and precise mechanics. The market relies entirely on objective data from a single designated exchange pair, Binance BTC/USDT, using the low price of one-minute candles within a defined timeframe from November 24, 2025, through December 31, 2026, Eastern Time. The market resolves immediately to Yes if a qualifying candle hits or falls below $35,000, and No otherwise. Other exchanges, pairs, or metrics are explicitly excluded, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin drops to $35,000 or lower by December 31, 2026. Resolution is based strictly on the 1-minute candle data for the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance, disregarding all other exchanges and pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final Low price equal to or lower than $35,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no such candle meets or falls below this price threshold during the specified period. Resolution relies exclusively on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart data, and prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded.
Key dates
- Observation window starts: — Start of price tracking period in ET
- Observation window ends: — End of price tracking period in ET
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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