Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
4.45¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.45%
$8.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise and objective resolution criteria. The market resolves immediately to Yes if any 1-minute candle on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair registers a Low price at or below $45,000 between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET, resolving to No if that threshold is not reached by the deadline. The data source and chart settings are clearly specified, and prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are explicitly excluded, leaving no room for source discretion or interpretive disagreement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches $45,000 or lower. Resolution depends strictly on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle low prices, excluding all other exchanges and pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET records a final Low price equal to or lower than $45,000. The market resolves to No if no one-minute candle reaches or falls below $45,000 during the specified timeframe. Resolution is determined solely by Binance 1-minute chart data for the BTC/USDT pair; other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets do not count.
Key dates
- Start of observation window: — Observation window begins at 14:00 ET.
- End of observation window: — Observation window ends at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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