Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
5.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.5%
$2.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for resolution, relying on a specific data point: the final high price of any one-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance. The timeframe is explicitly bounded in the ET timezone, with immediate early resolution to Yes if the price target is reached. The designated exchange and trading pair are clearly defined, leaving no room for decider interpretation or reliance on unstated alternative price feeds.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches at least $120,000 before the end of 2026. Resolution is strictly tied to 1-minute candle high prices on Binance's BTC/USDT pair, excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves immediately to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final High price equal to or greater than $120,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or exceeds $120,000 during this timeframe. Resolution is determined solely by Binance 1-minute candle chart data for BTC/USDT; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets do not qualify.
Key dates
- Monitoring start: — Start of the price observation window in ET.
- Monitoring end: — End of the price observation window in ET.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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