Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
3.1¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.1%
$2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules are straightforward, relying on an objective price threshold from a single specified exchange trading pair and chart timeframe. The market resolves early to Yes as soon as a one-minute candle on Binance BTC/USDT hits or exceeds $130,000 within the designated timeframe, leaving no room for discretionary interpretation. Traders should simply note that price spikes on other exchanges or pairs do not count, and the active monitoring window begins on November 24, 2025.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $130,000 by December 31, 2026, based strictly on 1-minute candle data from Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final High price of $130,000 or higher between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if the price fails to reach this threshold during the specified window. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data is the sole deciding source; price data from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or other spot markets are not considered.
Key dates
- Tracking window start: — Candle tracking begins at 14:00 ET.
- Tracking window end: — Candle tracking ends at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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