Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
2.75¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.75%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise, objective resolution criteria. Outcome determination relies strictly on the 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance within a clearly stated timezone and timeframe. The market resolves early to Yes if the target threshold of $140,000 is met at any point during the window, or to No after the final deadline. The data source is a single named exchange pair with explicit chart parameters, leaving no room for interpretive discretion or source conflict.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $140,000 by December 31, 2026. Resolution is restricted exclusively to Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high price data starting on November 24, 2025.
How it resolves
The market will resolve immediately to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final High price of $140,000 or higher between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market will resolve to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or exceeds $140,000 during this timeframe. Resolution is determined solely by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart data; prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or different trading pairs are not considered.
Key dates
- Monitoring begins: — Window opens at 14:00 ET.
- Monitoring ends: — Window closes at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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