Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
2.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.15%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on an objective and clearly defined data feed: the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle high price accessed at a specified URL. The resolution conditions state precisely that if any one-minute candle high meets or exceeds $150,000 between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, in the Eastern timezone, the market resolves to Yes immediately. If that threshold is not reached during the specified window, it resolves to No. The rules explicitly restrict the data source to Binance's BTC/USDT pair, eliminating ambiguity from price differences across other platforms or pairs. Source discretion is minimal and mechanical.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $150,000 by December 31, 2026, based strictly on Binance 1-minute candle data for the BTC/USDT pair.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final High price equal to or greater than $150,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or exceeds $150,000 during this specified tracking window. Resolution is determined solely by price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair on 1-minute chart settings. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded.
Key dates
- Tracking window starts: — Tracking begins at 14:00 ET.
- Tracking window ends: — Tracking ends at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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