Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
2.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.05%
$726K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clear and leave little room for ambiguity. Resolution depends entirely on objective price data: the high price of any one-minute candle for the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance reaching or exceeding $160,000 between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, Eastern Time. The market resolves immediately to Yes as soon as this threshold is met; otherwise, it resolves to No after the final deadline. Position holders should be aware that only the specific Binance BTC/USDT trading pair is monitored, meaning price spikes or milestone crosses on other exchanges or alternative currency pairs will not trigger resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $160,000 by December 31, 2026. Resolution relies solely on 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance, disregarding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final High price equal to or greater than $160,000. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches that threshold within the specified window. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart data serves as the sole resolution source; data from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets is excluded.
Key dates
- Tracking window start: — Measurement window begins at 14:00 ET.
- Tracking window end: — Measurement window ends at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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