Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.7¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$480.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise and objective resolution conditions based on a single named exchange and pair: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles. The market resolves immediately to Yes if any 1-minute candle shows a High price at or above $170,000 within the specified window from November 24, 2025, through December 31, 2026, ET, and to No otherwise. It clearly specifies the chart timeframe and URL to use, leaving no room for source discretion or ambiguous interpretations, though participants should be aware that price spikes on other exchanges or trading pairs will not trigger resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches $170,000 by December 31, 2026. Resolution is based exclusively on one-minute candle data for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance within a designated observation window starting November 24, 2025.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes immediately if any final 1-minute candle High price for the Binance BTC/USDT pair reaches or exceeds $170,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. This market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets or exceeds that threshold during the monitoring window. Prices from other exchanges, alternative trading pairs, or spot markets are disregarded. The deciding source is Binance 1-minute candle chart data for BTC/USDT.
Key dates
- Observation window start: — Observation period begins at 14:00 ET
- Observation window end: — Observation period ends at 23:59 ET
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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