Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.05%
$820.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear and objective resolution criteria. It relies on a single specified data source, the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart, checking whether the final High price reaches or exceeds $190,000 within an explicit timeframe and timezone. The market resolves immediately if the target is met prior to the end date, or resolves to No after the deadline. There is no discretion involved in interpreting the outcome, though participants should be aware that only the Binance BTC/USDT pair counts, so price spikes on other exchanges or trading pairs will not trigger resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches or exceeds a price of $190,000 between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, evaluated exclusively through Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET registers a final High price equal to or greater than $190,000. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets or exceeds this threshold during the monitoring window. The deciding source is Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart data. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or other spot markets are disregarded.
Key dates
- Start of monitoring window: — 14:00 ET
- End of monitoring window: — 23:59 ET
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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