Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
0.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.95%
$2.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules are clearly defined with an objective metric and single resolution source. Resolution is determined strictly by the 1-minute candle high price for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET. The market resolves to Yes immediately if that price reaches or exceeds $200,000 during the window, and resolves to No otherwise. Prices on other exchanges or pairs are explicitly excluded.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $200,000 by December 31, 2026. Resolution is restricted strictly to the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair, disregarding price data from all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves immediately to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT trading pair has a final High price of $200,000 or greater between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or exceeds $200,000 during this timeframe. Prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or different trading pairs do not count. The resolution is determined solely by Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT chart data.
Key dates
- Start of tracking window: — Tracking begins for Binance 1-minute candle data in ET.
- End of tracking window: — Tracking ends for Binance 1-minute candle data in ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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