Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify an exact URL and column on Box Office Mojo to determine the highest domestic calendar gross of 2026. Explicit clarifications are provided that only 2026 calendar dates count rather than total lifetime box office runs. A clear alphabetical tiebreak rule is established, and an unambiguous deadline of January 7, 2027 is set for when data must be available before turning to an alternative credible source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jumanji 3 will achieve the highest domestic calendar gross in 2026. Resolution specifically tracks only domestic earnings within the 2026 calendar year rather than lifetime grosses.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jumanji 3 is listed as the film with the highest 2026 domestic calendar gross. Dates outside of 2026 do not count toward this total. In the event of an exact tie, the film appearing first alphabetically is considered the winner. The market resolves to No if another film has the highest domestic gross for 2026. Resolution is determined by the Gross column on Box Office Mojo once December 31 data is available. If final data is unavailable by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Key dates
- Calendar year end: — Data for December 31 must be made available.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Deadline after which another credible source will be selected if final data is unavailable.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.