Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$821.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify a single primary source and URL, pointing directly to the 2026 calendar gross table on Box Office Mojo. The rules clarify that only domestic box office earnings accumulated strictly within the 2026 calendar year count toward the total, meaning earnings in 2027 from late-year releases are excluded. An objective alphabetical tie-breaker is provided if figures are tied. The only minor variable is a fallback to another credible source if Box Office Mojo has not finalized December 31 data by January 7, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu will achieve the highest domestic calendar gross of 2026. Earnings outside the 2026 calendar year are excluded, and exact ties are broken alphabetically.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is the film with the highest 2026 domestic calendar gross once data for December 31 is published. In the event of an exact tie for the highest gross, the film that comes first alphabetically wins. The market resolves No if another film earns the highest gross. Only earnings within the 2026 calendar year count toward a film's total. Box Office Mojo serves as the primary resolution source. If no final data is available from Box Office Mojo by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be chosen.
Key dates
- Data availability cutoff: — If Box Office Mojo has not provided final data by this time, an alternate credible source will be selected.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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