Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market rules specify an exact URL and table column from Box Office Mojo to determine the winning film based strictly on 2026 domestic calendar gross. The conditions account for the timing of data availability, define an alphabetical tie-breaker, and establish a clear deadline of January 7, 2027, before any fallback source may be consulted. Participants should note that only earnings accrued strictly within the 2026 calendar year count toward the total, meaning box office returns from other calendar years will be excluded.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the film 'Michael' will achieve the highest domestic box office gross during the 2026 calendar year. Only box office revenue earned strictly within calendar year 2026 counts toward the total.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if 'Michael' is the film with the highest 2026 domestic calendar gross according to Box Office Mojo once data for December 31, 2026, is published. If two or more films finish in an exact tie for highest gross, the film that comes first alphabetically wins. The market resolves No if any other film finishes with the highest 2026 calendar gross or wins the tiebreaker. Earnings generated outside the 2026 calendar year are excluded. Box Office Mojo serves as the primary resolution source. If final data is unavailable from Box Office Mojo by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be selected.
Key dates
- Final data availability deadline: — If Box Office Mojo data is not available by this time, an alternate credible source will be selected.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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