Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$2.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify a single authoritative URL and table column from Box Office Mojo, measuring 2026 domestic calendar gross rather than total lifetime box office runs. Resolution timing is tied directly to when December 31 box office figures are posted, with a specific backstop deadline of January 7, 2027, if data is delayed. A standard alphabetical tie-breaker is included, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Wicked: For Good achieves the highest domestic calendar gross of 2026. It relies strictly on earnings generated within the 2026 calendar year rather than total lifetime box office runs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Wicked: For Good is listed as the film with the highest 2026 domestic gross once full calendar year data is published. In the event of an exact tie for the top spot, the film that comes first alphabetically wins. The market resolves to No if any other film finishes with the highest 2026 domestic calendar gross or wins the tiebreak. Only domestic grosses earned within 2026 count; grosses outside 2026 are excluded. Resolution is determined by Box Office Mojo's 2026 calendar gross table once December 31 data is posted. If final data is unavailable from this source by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Key dates
- End of 2026 Gross Tracking Window: — Data through December 31 must become available for primary resolution.
- Alternative Source Fallback Deadline: — Another credible source will be chosen if final data is not available by this time.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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