Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$628K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify a single authoritative URL and table column from Box Office Mojo, explicitly measuring domestic calendar gross earned strictly within 2026. A clear resolution timeline is established once December 31 data is published, alongside a defined deadline of January 7, 2027, before any alternate credible source may be consulted. An explicit alphabetical tie-breaker is also defined in case of an exact gross match. Anyone looking solely at the question should note that the resolution measures domestic calendar gross rather than global box office or full lifetime theatrical runs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether The Super Mario Galaxy Movie finishes as the highest-grossing film domestically in 2026. Notably, it only accounts for domestic calendar earnings generated within the 2026 calendar year, disregarding any box office totals earned outside 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has the highest 2026 domestic gross listed in the Gross column on the Box Office Mojo 2026 calendar grosses chart once December 31 data is published. If there is an exact tie for the highest gross, the movie that comes first alphabetically wins. The market resolves No if any other film finishes with the highest domestic gross for 2026. Earnings accumulated on dates outside of 2026 are excluded. If final data is not available by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be selected to determine the outcome.
Key dates
- Calendar Year End: — Grosses through this date determine the final calendar totals.
- Data Availability Deadline: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET for Box Office Mojo final data before an alternative source is chosen.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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