Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market provides a specific resolution URL and points to an exact column on Box Office Mojo. It explicitly clarifies that only domestic calendar gross earned strictly within 2026 counts, rather than total worldwide earnings or earnings extending into 2027. There is a defined tie-breaking rule (alphabetical) and a clear fallback deadline of January 7, 2027, if the primary source has not updated.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the film Project Hail Mary achieves the highest domestic calendar gross among all movies in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Project Hail Mary has the highest 2026 domestic gross according to the specified data once December 31 figures are available. Only box office earnings within calendar year 2026 count, and dates outside 2026 are excluded. In the event of an exact tie, the film that appears first alphabetically is deemed the winner. The market resolves No if any other film achieves the top 2026 domestic calendar gross or wins an alphabetical tiebreaker. Resolution is determined using Box Office Mojo's 2026 calendar grosses table. If final data is unavailable by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Key dates
- Calendar Year End: — End of the domestic calendar gross tracking period.
- Data Availability Deadline: — Deadline for final Box Office Mojo data before an alternative credible source is selected.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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