Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$731.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined and anchored to a specific URL and column on Box Office Mojo. The rules explicitly clarify that only domestic calendar gross within the calendar year 2026 counts, rather than a film's total lifetime gross, which prevents common misunderstandings for late-year releases. A clear tie-breaker rule based on alphabetical order is included, and a backup mechanism is provided with a defined deadline if the primary source does not report final data in time.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dune: Messiah will achieve the highest domestic calendar gross of 2026. Resolution strictly considers box office earnings within the 2026 calendar year rather than total lifetime box office runs.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Dune: Messiah has the highest 2026 domestic calendar gross listed in the Gross column of the designated Box Office Mojo page once data for December 31 is available. Only earnings within 2026 count toward the total. In the event of an exact tie for top gross, the film appearing first alphabetically is declared the winner. The market resolves No if another film achieves the highest domestic calendar gross or wins via the alphabetical tiebreaker. Box Office Mojo serves as the primary source, but if final data is unavailable by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Key dates
- Calendar gross period end: — Data for December 31 must be made available before resolving.
- Final data cutoff: — If final data is not available by 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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