Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify an exact URL and table column from Box Office Mojo to determine the highest-earning domestic film for the 2026 calendar year. Resolution occurs once December 31 data is published, with a clear fallback deadline of January 7, 2027, and an explicit alphabetical tie-breaker. Participants should simply note that the ranking reflects domestic calendar earnings within 2026 rather than total lifetime gross for films released that year.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" achieves the highest domestic calendar gross in 2026. Only earnings within the 2026 calendar year count toward the total, and exact ties are decided alphabetically.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" has the highest 2026 domestic gross in the Gross column of the Box Office Mojo 2026 calendar grosses page once data for December 31 is available. The market resolves to No if any other movie achieves the highest domestic gross for the year. Earnings generated outside of calendar year 2026 do not count. In the event of an exact tie for the highest gross, the film that comes first alphabetically will be declared the winner. Box Office Mojo serves as the primary resolution source. If final data is not available by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Key dates
- Fallback resolution deadline: — If final Box Office Mojo data is unavailable by this time, another credible source will be selected.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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