Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$619.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market points to a specific URL and table column on Box Office Mojo with an explicit tiebreak rule and backup deadline. However, participants should note that the question asks about the top-grossing movie generally, while the rules specify domestic calendar gross strictly within 2026. This excludes international box office earnings as well as any domestic gross earned by 2026 releases in subsequent calendar years, which can diverge significantly from the worldwide total or full theatrical run totals typically associated with top-grossing rankings.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Toy Story 5 achieves the highest domestic box office gross during the 2026 calendar year. Resolution is based strictly on domestic earnings accumulated within 2026, excluding any revenue generated outside that calendar year or worldwide.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Toy Story 5 has the highest domestic gross for 2026 according to the Box Office Mojo 2026 calendar grosses page once December 31 data is released. The market resolves to No if another film achieves a higher domestic calendar gross in 2026. Only revenue generated strictly within calendar year 2026 counts. If there is an exact tie for the top gross, the film appearing first alphabetically is determined the winner. If no final data is available by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Key dates
- Data availability deadline: — If final data is unavailable from the primary source by this time, an alternate credible source will be selected.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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