Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$974.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question title does not specify a year, though the detailed rules establish the target date as December 31, 2026, at market close. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specific financial data terminal, official exchange feed, or standardized market-cap tracking index. Because calculating market capitalization for global multinational and state-owned firms can vary based on share class inclusion, free float adjustments, and foreign exchange conversion rates at different close times, reliance on broad reporting consensus leaves room for subjective interpretation if multiple companies are closely matched in valuation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tesla will have the largest market capitalization of any company in the world at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tesla is the largest company in the world by market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves No if another company holds the largest market capitalization at that time. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation date: — Market capitalization is measured as of market close on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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