Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market title omits the target year, though the rules clarify that the outcome will be measured at market close on December 31, 2026. Resolution does not use a designated financial terminal, market data provider, or official exchange data, relying instead on a consensus of credible reporting to determine rankings. Furthermore, the rules do not define currency conversion standards or specify whether calculations are restricted to publicly traded equities, leaving those details to be settled by media consensus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Amazon will achieve the largest market capitalization in the world at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Amazon is the largest company in the world by market capitalization on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The market resolves No if any other company holds the largest market capitalization at that time. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close assessment date: — Company market capitalizations are evaluated as of market close.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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