Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official financial database or benchmark provider like Bloomberg or S&P Capital IQ. Because market capitalization fluctuates across global exchanges with different operating hours and currencies, and December 31 is frequently a market holiday or half-day in several jurisdictions, determining exact closing valuations without a standardized pricing source leaves room for interpretation by the resolver.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Saudi Aramco will rank as the world's largest company by market capitalization on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Aramco is the largest company in the world by market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if another company holds the largest market capitalization at market close on that date. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation date: — Market capitalization is measured as of market close on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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