Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the outcome condition and rely on a strict consensus across three designated major media outlets: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the outcome condition and rely on a strict consensus across three designated major media outlets: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. There is an explicit fallback mechanism tied to the actual inauguration on January 20, 2029, if the three outlets do not reach a unanimous call by that date. The resolution criteria leave virtually no room for decider latitude or interpretive dispute.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marjorie Taylor Greene wins the 2028 US presidential election. Resolution depends on unanimous race calls from three major media outlets or, as a fallback, who is inaugurated.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Marjorie Taylor Greene wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or the official inauguration.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·