Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
13.05¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 13.05%
$13.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward and clearly structured. Outcome determination relies on consensus among three specific major media networks—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If a consensus among all three outlets does not emerge before Inauguration Day, a clear and objective fallback rule dictates that resolution will follow whichever individual is inaugurated on January 20, 2029.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, resolution is determined by who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with official inauguration serving as the fallback.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution deadline if all three media sources have not called the race for the same candidate.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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