Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
20.05¢
−0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 20.05%
$17.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clear and standard for presidential election markets. The market specifies three major named media decision desks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) and requires unanimous agreement among all three to trigger resolution before inauguration. If consensus is not reached by January 20, 2029, the rules provide an unambiguous fallback by resolving strictly on who is inaugurated. There are no hidden exclusions or ambiguous thresholds.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether JD Vance will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, resolution is based on who is inaugurated as president.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Resolution fallback based on inauguration if sources have not reached consensus.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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