Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
8.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.95%
$18.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined. Resolution requires unanimous consensus among three major media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—when all three project the same winner. If that threshold is not reached prior to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market explicitly falls back to whoever is officially inaugurated as president. There is minimal ambiguity or decider discretion involved.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gavin Newsom will win the 2028 United States presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another individual wins the election. Resolution is decided by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution deadline if all three consensus sources have not called the race.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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