Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
2.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.95%
$7.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the winning condition and establishes an objective consensus requirement among three specific named news outlets: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If the three networks do not all call the race for the same individual prior to January 20, 2029, the rules establish a definitive fallback resolving based on who is inaugurated. The conditions and timeline align directly with the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Shapiro will win the 2028 US Presidential Election, resolving via consensus among three major media networks or the eventual inauguration.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Josh Shapiro is declared the winner of the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The scheduled date for the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution deadline based on who is inaugurated if media consensus is not reached.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (fallback: presidential inauguration)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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