Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
2.75¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.75%
$8.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear and standard mechanics for resolving a US presidential election. Resolution triggers as soon as three major news organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all project the same winner. If those three outlets do not reach a consensus call, a definitive fallback resolves the market based on who is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. There is minimal ambiguity or room for administrative discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date on January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution deadline based on who is inaugurated if media consensus is not reached.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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