Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner for the 2028 presidential race.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner for the 2028 presidential race. A clear fallback is included: if a consensus among all three outlets is not reached by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on the individual who is officially inaugurated. These provisions provide unambiguous benchmarks and minimize subjective discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the January 20, 2029 inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with actual inauguration serving as the fallback.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·