Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.65%
$183K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome condition and name three major media decision desks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—requiring all three to align on calling the race for the same candidate. Additionally, an unambiguous backstop is provided: if the consensus call is not reached by January 20, 2029, resolution simply defaults to whichever candidate is officially inaugurated, eliminating edge-case ambiguity or reliance on decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Rahm Emanuel will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Rahm Emanuel wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins. The resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback date to resolve based on who is inaugurated if media calls do not align.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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