Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.65¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.65%
$589.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective resolution criteria. Resolution is determined once three named major news organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—unanimously project the winner of the 2028 presidential race. If consensus among all three is not reached prior to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market uses a clear fallback and resolves based on the individual who is officially inaugurated.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ted Cruz will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ted Cruz wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback date to resolve based on who is inaugurated if media sources have not reached consensus.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or the inaugurated president
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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