Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
1.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.05%
$1.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear and unambiguous resolution mechanics. It names three specific media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to agree on the projected winner before resolving early. If consensus among those three outlets is not reached before Inauguration Day, a definitive fallback resolves the market based on who is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. There is minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Raphael Warnock will win the 2028 United States presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Raphael Warnock wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another individual wins. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project or call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with official inauguration serving as the fallback.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The scheduled date of the 2028 US presidential election.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution deadline if media sources have not called the race.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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