Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
1.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.25%
$789.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution criteria are clearly defined with minimal ambiguity. Resolution requires a consensus projection from three specific major news networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If a unanimous call among those three outlets does not occur before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market uses the definitive official backstop of whoever is inaugurated as president. The terms and timeline are explicit, leaving little room for subjective interpretation or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mark Kelly will win the 2028 US presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mark Kelly wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another individual wins. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution deadline based on who is inaugurated if media sources have not reached consensus.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.