Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$1.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has straightforward rules and clear criteria for resolution. It explicitly names three major media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to agree on the projected winner before resolving early. It also includes an unambiguous backstop: if the three networks do not reach a consensus call before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market resolves strictly according to who is officially inaugurated as president.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tom Cotton wins the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Resolution is tied to a consensus call across three specific media networks or the official presidential inauguration.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tom Cotton wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution date based on who is inaugurated if media sources have not reached consensus.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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