Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$413.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined and follow standard presidential election mechanics. Resolution relies on three specific named news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) reaching a consensus call on the winner. If all three outlets do not agree by January 20, 2029, a clear fallback resolves the market based on who is officially inaugurated. There are no ambiguous thresholds or unusual clauses.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Doug Burgum will win the 2028 US Presidential Election. Resolution relies on consensus among major media outlets or the eventual presidential inauguration.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Doug Burgum wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated as president.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election takes place.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution date if media sources have not reached consensus.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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