Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$391K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly specified and follow standard election market mechanics. Resolution occurs as soon as all three named media organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—unanimously project the same winner. If all three outlets do not reach agreement before the official presidential inauguration date of January 20, 2029, the market falls back to whoever is sworn in. The path to resolution is objective, leaving virtually no room for decider interpretation or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mike Johnson will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mike Johnson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins the election. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated as president.
Key dates
- Election day: — Scheduled date of the 2028 US presidential election
- Inauguration date: — Fallback resolution deadline if sources have not reached consensus
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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