Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$393.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward and rely on three specific major media decision desks: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves as soon as all three named outlets project the same winner. In the event of a disputed or delayed call where all three do not reach a consensus prior to January 20, 2029, the market contains a definitive fallback that resolves based on whoever is officially inaugurated as president.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tim Scott will win the 2028 United States presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tim Scott wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated as president.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution deadline if media consensus is not reached.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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