Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$534.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the outcome is determined, relying on three specific named media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Resolution occurs as soon as all three call the race for the same candidate. In the event that a consensus is not reached prior to January 20, 2029, a definitive fallback directly ties resolution to whoever is officially inaugurated. There are no vague thresholds or subjective interpretation requirements.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Candace Owens will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Candace Owens wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution date based on who is inaugurated if media sources have not reached consensus.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with presidential inauguration as a fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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