Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$850.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution terms are straightforward and rely on three specific major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) reaching consensus on the race winner. A clear backstop rule specifies that if all three outlets have not aligned by January 20, 2029, the market will resolve according to who is officially inaugurated. There is minimal room for interpretive dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alex Padilla will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Alex Padilla wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three designated sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated as president.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The scheduled date for the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution deadline based on who is inaugurated if all three sources have not agreed on a winner.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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