Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules clearly specify that the market resolves once three designated news outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all project the same candidate as the winner. If all three outlets do not reach consensus by Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market relies on the objective fallback of who is formally inaugurated. The criteria and sources leave minimal room for ambiguity or discretionary judgment.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Stein will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Josh Stein wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The date the 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback date to resolve based on who is inaugurated if media sources have not reached consensus.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.