Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$728.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish how the outcome is determined, requiring an agreed race call across three specific named news organizations: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not reach a unanimous call by the January 20, 2029 inauguration date, the market resolves definitively based on who is inaugurated as president. The conditions are straightforward, objective, and provide a clear fallback mechanism.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elissa Slotkin will win the 2028 US presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Elissa Slotkin wins the 2028 US presidential election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Outcome calls by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC determine the winner once all three sources project the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Date: — If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by this date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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