Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$923.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined with minimal ambiguity. Resolution relies on consensus race calls across three named major news networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), leaving little room for decider discretion. If the three outlets do not unanimously call the race before January 20, 2029, a definitive fallback resolves the market based directly on who is inaugurated as president. The rules align closely with the core question and provide clear trigger conditions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Abigail Spanberger will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Abigail Spanberger wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. This market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The outcome is determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC once all three media sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election date: — The scheduled date for the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration date: — Fallback resolution deadline based on who is inaugurated if media sources have not reached consensus.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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