Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$10.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward and well-defined. The market relies on three specific major media organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) and clearly states that all three must project the same winner for early resolution. If there is any disagreement or lack of consensus among the named networks by January 20, 2029, a definitive fallback resolves the market based on who is officially inaugurated as president.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Hegseth will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Pete Hegseth wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution date if all three media sources have not called the race for the same candidate.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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