Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.85¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.85%
$8.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for resolution. The market resolves as soon as three named major media organizations—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—unanimously project the same winner. If a consensus among all three is not reached by Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, a definitive fallback resolves the market based on who is officially inaugurated. There is minimal room for interpretive ambiguity or discretionary disputes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Thomas Massie will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Thomas Massie wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Resolution will be determined by who is inaugurated if the three media sources have not all called the race for the same candidate.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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