Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$19.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules provide clear and objective mechanics. Resolution occurs as soon as three specified major media networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all call the presidential race for the same candidate. If a unanimous call among the three outlets does not occur prior to the scheduled inauguration date of January 20, 2029, the market falls back definitively to whichever individual is inaugurated.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Michelle Obama will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Michelle Obama wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the election. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the January 20, 2029 inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution occurs based on who is inaugurated if sources have not reached consensus.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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